The Former President's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Advantage to Putin

At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm approach on Ukraine. After issuing threats of "serious repercussions" in August should Putin carried on hindering peace negotiations, he eventually enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in the region.

Yet, via his latest detailed peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' officials lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in danger. Although bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business past, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's war is not only about controlling a damaged area of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in position the already split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would require the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unable to capture in over a ten years of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a essential impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital should he subsequently choose to resume the war.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their existing large number soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, the proposal places no such restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan states: "All extremist doctrine and practices must be opposed and banned." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured areas in the region to Kyiv – why should we have confidence in Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan threatens a "strong unified military response" in case the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

A separate side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "major, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best protection against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to react through arms to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not