Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”