Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop 37% During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The average number of daily homicides monthly in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative data. But, public safety specialists have warned that homicide figures might not indicate improved countrywide stability.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded in these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

However, security researchers urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst said.